Modern maps lie.

Today, there are far more functional countries in the world than any map will list.  These unrecognized countries are nation-states.  This designation means they are identified by their a unified culture which is separate politically and socially from their official government.   The Arab Spring has blown the lid off many of the worst autocracies, from the deserts of the Sahara to the Balkans peninsula.  Corrupt central governments are receding before small nation-state across the Third World.  In the twenty-first century stability in the Middle East and rapidly developing countries  will be marked by the emergence of small, regional nation-states whose legitimization comes from their ties to the local cultures.

Since 2004 there have been two countries in Yemen.  There is the recognized militaristic government under President Saleh, the target of international outrage as massing Arab Spring protesters demand his resignation and that of his heavy-handed parliament.  UN  observers have taken advantage of this strife to visit off-limits regions of the country.  They have discovered a new nation.

In the north of Yemen  the separatist Houthis have established a large territory, encompassing cities, which they operated independently from the recognized government.  Their struggle for independence is largely hidden by the oppressive Saleh regime, who bombarded and assaulted northern towns indiscriminately.  We learn from Yemen that there can be operating, unrecognized governments in destabilized nations.  Some have already emerged.

South Sudan broke away from Sudan on July 9, 2011 to the applause and amazement of the world.  Before their split from Sudan the South Sudanese were largely unrepresented in their ex-government’s corrupt and violent regime, which has killed hundreds of thousands in the Darfur Genocide.  A separatist movement in South Sudan was able to win support for a new nation because natives wanted a government from their people for their people.

There is still unrest in South Sudan; however, they have even gained a foothold as an established nation.  Money is beginning to flow into South Sudan.  For example, the country recently won a $2.14 billion dollar oil export deal.  Meanwhile, South Sudan President Salva Kiir Mayardit has met with President Obama and begun to build tentative relations with the United States.  South Sudan is here to stay.  The African Union, one of the most notable inter-country organization in Africa, has admitted South Sudan as a full-fledged member.  The future looks bright for South Sudan.  We learn from Southern Sudan that unrecognized nations can emerge members of the international community.  Other nation-states, still unrecognized, still have international impact.

Palestine is a new state-nation, despite what Israeli claims.  It is one of the most renown largely, yet unrecognized, new nation-states in the world.  For years they have lived under a trade embargo from Israel because of the Palestinian’s Hamas government, who seeks to wipe Israel from the map.  However, with the winds of the Arab Spring change has come to the Gaza Strip.  With Mubarak’s resignation in Egypt and the erosion of the Israel-Egyptian alliance the western border of Palestine has been opened.  This derivative of the Arab Spring has allowed critical resources and new ideas to sweep through the Hamas government.  It was suspected this would cause an explosion of  terrorist activity into Israel and snowballing border war

This is not the case.

Instead, Hamas is calling for a mitigation of violence.  They are even willing to consent to the 1967 borders between Israel and Palestine.  In the aftermath of the Arab Spring these radicals are willing to yield where they once vowed they would not.  I believe the Arab Spring is influencing these separatist leaders to make rational moves and take what they can get.  If Israel can also agree to this deal they might be able to bring peace to a region that has been swamped in conflict for more than half a century through recognizing two separate states of Palestine and Israel.  In the past they attempted several varieties of hegemony over the radically different Jews and Muslims with no success. Nation-states are the solution to end territorial conflicts because the end the predicament with a definitive border line.  This solution is not limited to the Middle East.

In Europe, Kosovo has emerged as a semi-recognized nation-state within the borders of Serbia.  Between Mali and Algeria Al-Qaeda Islamic Maghred  is establish local support for a new territory of power.  Despite each nation-state being radically different all of these, from across the world, share common traits.  Each is recognized by its own unique cultures.  In addition, these new countries have the ability to be self-sufficient because of the emotional investment the leaders have in their homeland.  Finally, nation-states can emerge anywhere in the world where there is an unrepresented, by motivated, minority with a unified culture.

The Age of World Wars, which has lasted since the French-Indian War until the fall of the Berlin Wall, is over.  We are entering the Separatist Wars, between emerging nation-states and their oppressive governments.

Nation-states will fight for new countries because that will be the only way they can secure their own futures.  Rather than sweeping conflicts across conflicts the twenty-first century will be marked by numerous heated conflicts.  Once the dust settles many cultural enclaves will emerge as state-nations.

The world will be off with nation-states governments will curtail of corruption and increase representation of otherwise ignored populations because of their cultural investments.  This is my prediction, interpret it as you wish.

Advertisements