The Iran – Israel Crisis: Part 1, The Stakes

Leave a comment


F16 jet swirl

How long till war?

All eyes are on Iran and its nuclear program.  The Iranian government has stated that it pursues only peaceful ends in its new-found interest in uranium enrichment.  Israel and the United States have accused Iran of building nuclear WMDs.  In this article, Part 1, we will review how Israel and Iran are igniting the next world war and how conventional methods of defusing this situation have failed.  In Part 2, we will examine the diplomatic failures which have allowed this situation to persist and worsen.  In Part 3 we will review unlikely alternatives which might be able to prevent the United States from being dragged into a 21st century Vietnam.

Why are Iran and Israel Moving Towards War?

Iran and Israel have the keys to peace or war in the Middle East; they both choose war. we can see the rational explanation behind this absurd decision by looking into game theory and the Prisoners’ Dilemma. Both sides have the option of backing down; however, if either side took enacted peaceful measures it would open itself for attack from the opposition.  Without mutual trust or a shared allied superpower to help negotiate a thawing of relations these nations are locked onto the war path.

How Will the War Begin on Our Current Course?

Israel has talked openly about a preemptive strike.  With a surprise attack Israeli fighter jets plan to cripple the Iranian nuclear program beyond repair.  Iran will doubtlessly strike back; igniting a regional war against Israel.  The United States will most likely be dragged into the conflict with the inevitable Iranian retaliations.  In an American military war-game codenamed Internal Look, which played out many possible scenarios following an Israeli preemptive strike,  United States ships were attacked by Iranian planes attempting to intercept the retreating Israel fighters.  This is one of dozens of possibilities which could throw American into a pan-Arabian war in one of the world’s most volatile and important regions,

Why is It Important to Prevent War?

Life and energy.

It is of primary importance to maintain peace to prevent wholesale slaughter on a scale not seen since the end of World War Two.  Iran uses human waves of millions of loyalists to crush enemies while Israel decimates invaders with overwhelming air power and possibly nuclear.  A conflict would kill thousands; if there is an alternative, it must be pursued

Second, oil is something critical to the Middle Oil flow will slow to a trickle if war explodes across the Persian Gulf; either blockades of the Straits of Hormuz or wholesale destruction of regional oil tankers could cut off the world’s energy supply.  International blackouts would cause unprecedented chaos.

The question becomes that if war would be so disastrous why would the powers that be allowed it to deteriorate to this strained point?  Find the answer in Part 2; it will be up tomorrow.

All comments are appreciated and will be answered promptly.

Profile: Hamid Karzai, President of Afghanistan

Leave a comment


111214-D-BW835-023

Hamid Karzai

Meet President Hamid Karzai, the first elected president of the Islamic State of Afghanistan.  After 2014 his government will be responsible for protecting the country which thousands of Americans, Afghans, and international troops have died to sustain.  It is in debate if he is up to the task.

In order to answer this question we must analyze who Hamid Karzai is

Karzai was always going to be a politician.  He first made a name for himself in the ranks of the Mujahedeen, freedom fighters resisting the Russian annexation of Afghanistan.  He gained notoriety fundraising for the Mujahedeen in Pakistan and fame by leading negotiations uniting conflicting factions and directing mass defections of domestic opposition.  In 1992 he served as the Deputy Foreign Minister in the Afghanistan government.  The Taliban’s growing influence hedged him out of the country.  It was not until the 1999 assassination of his father, by the Taliban, that Karzai began his crusade to end the radical regime.  It was not until the events of September 11, 2001 that Karzai got his opportunity.

During Operation Enduring Freedom, the NATO invasion of Afghanistan in response to the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, Karzai fought with his tribe to bring a new government to Afghanistan.  He met stiff resistance from the Taliban, who were specifically targeted him to deny Afghanistan of one of his finest negotiators.  Friendly fire, from American missiles, hit his troops and seriously injured Karzai.  He became the chairman of the transitional government and was essential to the negotiations which brought about a unified government in Afghanistan.

2004 was the peak of Karzai’s career.  He was elected the President of Afghanistan with 55.4% of the vote.  Numerous obstructions marred his presidency and public opinion depreciated.  Systematic corruption eroded public faith in the government.  Isolated and accidental killings of civilians by Afghan and NATO forces turned distrust into anger.   The Taliban was still at large in the southeastern parts of Afghanistan.  Illegal poppy fields remained the cash crop for the insurgency and the Afghan government could not cull the fields.  Karzai fiercely insisted to not use chemical herbicides against the poppy growers, due to fears of a much more volatile civil war, have stifled progress against the drugs.  IED’s, suicide bombers, and ambushes have only spread anger and dissention.

In  2009 Karzai won the reelection with only with just over fifty percent of the popular vote.  Accusations of ballot stuffing, voter intimidation, and a key opponent mysteriously dropping out just before the runoff election have left Karzai’s government under heavy suspicion.  It took over a year for him to place all of his advisors because the Afghan Parliament rejected many due to the candidate’s ties with warlords and inability to perform.

Criticisms are multiplying.  International activists have denounced his administration as one of the most corrupt in the world.  Millions of dollars of international aid have simply disappeared.  Widespread desertion is common in the Afghan military and discipline in the ranks is nonexistence.  Deserters often turn up in the ranks of the Taliban.

Karzai will be the President of Afghanistan until 2014, at which time international forces will complete their withdrawal from Afghanistan.  It is my opinion that Karzai is not up to challenge.  He has failed to rejuvenates a country which desperately needs strong leadership.  He is probably one of the best men in Afghanistan to mediate fair negotiations.  However, that is not the role of the President:  presidents must act, and Karzai does not seem to be reforming in a hurry.

Source: BBC, New York TimesBiography.com, Wikipedia

China Arming Gaddafi: $200 Million Dollar Arms Deal Jeopardizes Future of Libya

Leave a comment


Libyan Rebels Discover the Chinese Have Been Arming Gaddafi

Beijing has hastily covered up of a $200 million arm deal with Gaddafi and his militant regime.  The deal took place to prop up the illegitimate regime. Libyan rebels have been capturing modern weapons with Chinese origins, it is speculated that they were secretly shipped to pro-Gaddafi force through Algeria. Papers found in the rubbish of pro-Gaddafi leaders confirmed the deal.   International ire has been raised; Beijing’s Gaddafi gamble has cast a shadow over their credibility and doubtlessly killed hundreds of rebels.

What Comprised of The Weapon Deal?

Everything to outfit a brand new army.

The papers revealing the weapons deal stated that rocket launchers, anti-tank, anti-aircraft missiles would be shipped in addition to assorted small arms.  Many good Libyans died to these advanced weapons.  Perhaps more will.  Gaddafi forces have retreated into Niger, it is speculated they will wage a terrorist war against Libya to attempt to regain control.  China did not score a strategic success, only pools of more bloodshed.

How is China Reacting To the Exposure?

China has now officially admitted that there were arms talks.

To make up for their failing the Chinese are stepping up regulation of private Chinese weapons manufactures.  This feint probably will not halt international outrage.  China has already overstepped its bounds in foreign affairs on many occasions.  Some examples including supporting the tyrannical North Korea or annexing Tibet.  This flair for violence has so far been tolerated; however it is poisoning the world against Beijing.  Libya’s Transitional Council is investigating this incident as anger flares throughout their supporters.  Libya will not be a fan of the Chinese.

Why Would China Fight the Rebels?

Beijing is posturing for a Second Cold War.

Arming America’s enemies is reminiscent of previous Chinese interventions, such as Vietnam; they perpetuated a twenty war with tens of thousands of American casualties by arming the Vietcong and NVA covertly.  The goal was to win influence for China through killing its enemies, the Americans, through indirect means.  Their objectives are met and China is not publicly threatened.

The Western powers have aligned with the rebels.  China seeks a world empire to match that of the Westerners.  Damaging new additions to Western Coalition will weaken NATO, the European UN, and the United States. Libya has oil, China views it as a valuable player should war evolve.  Weakening this hapless state, while they are violent civil war, reinforces their position.

Calculated moves such as this have already set the Second Cold War in motion, only historians will mourn our loss of peace.

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 137 other followers

%d bloggers like this: